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Macau Casino Market Outlook
CLSA Ltd. has significantly revised its forecast for Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025. Initially projecting a modest 1.8 percent year-on-year increase, the brokerage now anticipates a robust 7.6 percent growth, reaching HKD234.8 billion (approximately US$30 billion). This substantial upward revision, a 5.8 percentage point improvement, is largely attributed to two key factors: the opening of new luxury casino resorts in Cotai and the strengthening of the renminbi against the US dollar. The influx of high-roller players engaging in significant betting and wagering activities contributes significantly to the overall GGR. The excitement surrounding popular casino games like slots, poker, blackjack, baccarat, and roulette, further fuels the growth. Many players are drawn to the thrill of the jackpot, hoping for a lucky roll and a substantial cashout.
The June 2025 GGR figures, showing a 19.0 percent year-on-year increase, further bolster CLSA’s optimistic outlook. This positive trend indicates a strong recovery in the Macau casino market, driven by both the return of mainland Chinese tourists and the appeal of the newly opened premium properties. The potential for continued growth is significant, especially considering the ongoing popularity of live dealer games, which offer an immersive and engaging gambling experience. Games like dragon tiger and mahjong, with their unique appeal, further enhance the diversity of the casino offerings.
Impact of New Luxury Properties
The opening of several new high-end properties in Cotai has played a crucial role in boosting Macau’s GGR. These include Sands China’s Londoner Macao Phase 2, Capella at Galaxy Macau (featuring 95 penthouses and suites), and the addition of 10 new VIP suites at MGM Macau. The expansion of luxury accommodations caters to high-spending gamblers, increasing the overall betting volume and contributing significantly to the revenue growth. The strategic timing of these openings, coinciding with the May Golden Week holiday, maximized their impact on GGR. The addition of new gaming tables, especially in premium mass and VIP sections, further enhances the attraction for high-stakes players looking for a luxurious and exclusive gambling experience. The strategic addition of new gaming tables, particularly within the VIP sections, caters to the high-stakes players, boosting the overall betting volume and revenue.
Currency Fluctuations and VIP Betting
CLSA highlights the strengthening of the renminbi against the US dollar as a major factor influencing Macau’s GGR. Since most bets are placed in Hong Kong dollars (pegged to the US dollar), and a significant portion of tourists are from mainland China, the renminbi’s appreciation makes gambling in Macau more affordable for Chinese visitors, encouraging higher spending and wagering. This positive currency exchange rate significantly impacts the high-roller segment, where substantial bets are commonplace. The VIP players, with assets primarily denominated in renminbi, find their purchasing power enhanced, leading to increased gambling activity and higher GGR.
GGR Growth and EBITDA Margin
While GGR is projected to experience significant growth, CLSA anticipates minimal expansion in the EBITDA margin. The brokerage forecasts the EBITDA margin to remain relatively flat at 27.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and slightly decrease to 26.9 percent in the third quarter. This stability is attributed to the balance between revenue growth and reinvestments or operational expenses. However, CLSA notes that faster GGR growth could lead to margin expansion through operating leverage, if investment and operational costs are managed effectively. The projected 6.9 percent year-on-year increase in second-quarter EBITDA to approximately HKD16 billion further underscores the positive financial outlook for the Macau casino industry.
Key Takeaway
Macau’s casino market is poised for significant growth in 2025, driven by new luxury properties and favorable currency exchange rates. While EBITDA margins are expected to remain relatively stable, the overall positive outlook is strong.
| Quarter | Projected EBITDA Margin (%) |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 27.2 |
| Q3 2025 | 26.9 |
FAQs
The increased GGR forecast is primarily driven by the opening of new luxury casino resorts in Cotai and the strengthening of the renminbi against the US dollar.
A stronger renminbi makes gambling in Macau more affordable for mainland Chinese tourists, leading to increased spending and higher GGR.
CLSA projects a relatively flat EBITDA margin, around 27% for Q2 and slightly lower for Q3, but this could improve with faster GGR growth.
New luxury hotels attract high-spending gamblers, increasing the overall betting volume and contributing significantly to revenue growth.
